Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal, oil and gas as well as from industrial activities grew by just 0.6% in 2014, according to researchers from the Global Carbon Project of the organisation Future Earth.
The researchers say emissions have grown even more slowly this year, and may even show a small decrease of 0.6% by the end of this year.
Carbon dioxide emissions account for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the earth. Climate change is reducing farm output worldwide, intensifying storms, floods and droughts and raising the global sea level. For the billions of people who rely on monsoons, climate change is making rainy seasons shorter, but with more intense rainfall.
So a small increase in emissions or even a possible drop is positive news. But there is no cause for celebration, the researchers warned, as they released their report on the sidelines of the November 30-December 11 UN climate summit in Paris.
Concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) passed the 400 parts per million stage in 2015, its highest in 800,000 years. This is close to a tipping point beyond which climate change could be catastrophic in many parts of the planet, the UN’s climate science panel has warned.
Only drastic cuts in global CO2 over the next few decades are likely to put the world on a path to cap an average rise in global temperatures to 2C, but the Paris summit is unlikely to agree cuts anywhere near what is required, while 1.5C threshold insisted upon by small island states would be increasingly out of reach in a modest agreement.
Study leader Corinne Le Quéré, Director of the UK’s Tyndall Centre at University of East Anglia, said at an event to publicise the release: “With two years of untypical emissions growth, it looks like the trajectory of global emissions might have changed temporarily. It is unlikely that emissions have peaked for good. This is because energy needs for growing economies still rely primarily on coal, and emissions decreases in some industrial countries are still modest at best.”
The study – also published in the journals Nature Climate Change and Earth System Science Data – shows that the biggest contributors to global emissions in 2014 were China (27%), US (15%), EU (10%) and India (7%).
Typically, carbon dioxide emissions have only declined during periods of economic crisis, such as that which occurred between 2007 and 2008. But this would be the first decline during a period of global economic growth.
Le Quéré pointed out that the average annual growth in emissions since 2000 has been 2-3%. “It is important to remember that our projection for 2015 is an estimate, and there will always be a range of uncertainty. In this case, the 2015 projection ranges from a global decline in emissions of up to 1.5% – or at the other end of the spectrum, a small rise of 0.5%.”
Robert Jackson of Stanford University, co-chair of the Global Carbon Project, pointed to saw slower global growth in petroleum use in 2014 and faster growth in renewables. Wind and solar capacities saw record increases in capacity last year and are on track to be even higher in 2015, he added.